1. Betting On The Spread Nfl
2. Betting Against The Spread Nfl Las Vegas

• We'll discuss Money line, Against the spread and Over/Under bets, and look at how to read odds and find the best value at BetMGM Sportsbook. Tennessee Titans' 2020 betting trends The Titans head into Week 9 of the 2020 NFL season at 5-2 on the money line and tied for first place in the.
• The popularity of the point spread bet in the NFL is equally shared by NBA bettors and it works essentially the same way. When Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks tip off at Madison Square Garden against the New York Knicks, the Bucks are going to be -800 on the moneyline but may have a point spread of -13.5 points with odds of -110, with the Knicks coming back at +13.5 with a -110 line.

For many, betting against the spread is the best way to start making some real money, fast. If you’re entirely new to NFL point spread betting, or even the concept of odds, visit our series of articles for.

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Most sporting events have a perceived favorite, so applying a spread to the game is the bookmakers’ way of creating an even playing field. This is most often seen when betting on the NFL. When you bet “against the spread,” it’s not enough for the favorite to win the game; now, they have to win by more than a specified amount (the spread) in order for them to “cover the spread.”

As we explained with moneyline betting, a negative number (-) indicates the favorite and a positive number (+) indicates the underdog.

ATS (Against the Spread) Betting: Case Study

Betting On The Spread Nfl

As you can see, New England is the favorite in this game by 7.5 points, since they have the negative number. You will often see half-points attached to the spread to avoid “pushes,” or ties for the newbies. As we covered in our how to read odds guide, games with half-point spreads are said to contain a “hook.”

In this circumstance, favored New England is said to be “laying” 7.5 points. This means you subtract 7.5 points from their total score when the game concludes. If they still have more points than the Chiefs, then they “covered.” Therefore, the Patriots will have to win the game by at least 8 points for you to win your bet.

Betting Against The Spread Nfl Las Vegas

While New England is “laying” 7.5 points, Kansas City is “getting” 7.5 points. This means you add 7.5 points to their total score when the game concludes. If, after doing so, they have more points than the Patriots, then they “covered.” So, in order to win your bet, the Chiefs just cannot lose the game by 8 points or more. For example, if the Chiefs only lose by 3 points, you would win if you bet on Kansas City.

Here are a couple of mock outcomes, with the team who covered the spread in bold.

• Kansas City 21 – New England 24
• Kansas City 17 – New England 25
• Kansas City 3 – New England 41
• Kansas City 30 – New England 27

What Can Change the Spread?

The spreads in football games are subject to change based on where the money is going and weekly injury reports. If Tom Brady is hit by the Madden Curse before the season even starts and is unable to suit up, you’ll see the spread decrease, likely landing around New England -3.5.

Calculating Payouts Against the Spread

Now you may have noticed in the chart above that there is a three-digit number next to each spread, which looks an awful lot like a moneyline. It is, in essence. Those negative numbers (-110 in this case) indicate how much you have to bet in order to win $100. (Sportsbooks still take their cut when you’re betting against the spread.)

Generally, you will see “even bets,” meaning the payout is the same no matter who you bet on. But that’s not always the case, as you’ll see in the chart for our next example.

If the result of this game is Seattle 21 – Green Bay 28, would you win if you bet on Seattle to cover?

(NO! They lost by more than three points.)

Do Other Sports Have Spread Betting Options?

Betting against the spread on the NFL is undoubtedly the most popular form of spread betting, but there are other options.

You will also see point spreads in hockey, baseball, and soccer. They are referred to in different terms, but they refer to the same principle of operation as the spread.

In hockey, the spread is called apuck line; in baseball, it is a run line; and in soccer, it is a goal line.

Puck lines and run lines are almost always fixed at 1.5.

Learn the Basics of Sports Betting

Want to learn more about the basics of betting on sports? Educate yourself with sports betting 101.

One of the keys to successful NFL handicapping is understanding player value. Injuries are way of life in pro football. They happen all the time and no team is going to avoid them.

This article is all about understanding how specific players can impact the odds. More specifically the exact numerical value they are worth on the point spread. As well, as using that information in our handicapping to make wiser bets.

Impact Different Positions Have on NFL Odds & Betting Lines

The data is based on an average NFL season. It’s not to say that one year a player may exceed the position value. It is simply a baseline to go off of.

Quarterbacks have the biggest impact on the lines. That shouldn’t come as a surprise. It’s no secret that the elite at the position give their teams a better chance of winning. Not just the Super Bowl, but on a week to week basis.

As you can see from the chart, elite signal callers on average will impact the odds by 5 to 7 points. You might be thinking only a touchdown? That’s a huge amount when it comes to the sports betting world. Most NFL spreads are less than 7-points.

There’s only a handful of quarterbacks even considered to be in the elite class. Were talking the best of the best. Don’t make the mistake of including above-average QB’s here.

Not to say your run of the mill signal caller isn’t important. In fact, they are going to impact the odds on average a lot more than an elite skill player or defensive player.

How to Figure Out Player Value Using Odds & Line Movement

This is more tricky than you might think. The values given to these players is not always something you can easily see by looking at the odds.

The simplest way to try and gauge a players value is to set a spread for a specific matchup if all things were equal. By that I mean both teams are 100% healthy. Be sure to incorporate home-field advantage into your line.

Once you have that number, you would subtract it from the actual spread on the game. This would tell you how valuable a player is.

For example, let’s use the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers. Let’s say I think the Packers should be a 7-point favorite if everything was equal (Rodgers isn’t hurt). If the spread on the game is a pick’em, that tells us that Rodgers is worth 7-points.

Just keep in mind that multiple injuries to players who impact the odds will make this a lot more difficult. As I’ll soon explain, you probably just want to get a set player value chart.

Tips for Finding Value Against the Spread Using Player Values

To be able to spot value, you are going to need a set number for each player already in place. There’s some lists out there, but I encourage you to make your own. Just be sure to use common sense and to go off the average values in the chart above.

Also, you don’t need values for every single player. You only want to focus on the players who will impact the odds. Oddsmakers play to the public. They know they are more likely to bet against a team if they are missing a QB or an elite skill player or defensive stud.

They aren’t going to move the line on a game because the starting center has a concussion and won’t play. The thing is, center can be a critical position to an offense’s success. However, the public isn’t lining up to go against a team without their center. Because of this, few at this position will make the line move at all.

One of the common mistakes the public makes it blindly betting against a team because they are minus their starting quarterback. What they overlook is that they aren’t getting any more value in their bet. The odds have already been adjusted for the injury.

This is where you can find value. Let’s say a team is without their starting QB and center. Needless to say, chances are they are going to have a difficult time scoring. A lot more so than if it was the backup QB playing with the starting center.

The odds will likely only be adjusted for the injured quarterback. In this case, that player is worth more than normal, which means you would be getting value on the other team.

This is just one example of finding value. If a team suffers multiple injuries at the same position. While there might not be a drop off from the starters to the backups to adjust the line. There’s usually a noticeable decline from the backups to the guys on the practice squad. The line needs to be adjusted some for this, but it’s not always the case.

You also have to factor in coaching. The Patriots could pull a guy off the street and put him at quarterback and I wouldn’t be surprised if New England covered. That is as long as Bill Belichick is the head coach. Top level coaching can cover up for some big injuries. There also might not be as big a drop off for players in systems that seem to produce no matter who is on the field.

The biggest takeaway from all of this should be that it’s not just the big injuries you should be focusing on. It’s the guys who get hurt that the media doesn’t focus on. I’m confident that if you start factoring in more of the guys on the injury report you don’t know, you will start winning more of your bets.